Bitcoin Regime History
90-day Hidden Markov Model state timeline showing how long Bitcoin spent in each market regime — Bull, Bear, High-Volatility Bear, and Transition. Updated daily from on-chain and market data.
← Live Dashboard| Regime | Start Date | End Date | Duration | Return | Avg Daily Vol |
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Understanding Bitcoin Market Regime History
Bitcoin has historically cycled through four distinct market regimes, each with characteristic return and volatility profiles. The Low Volatility Bull regime typically accompanies accumulation phases and trend continuations, while the High Volatility Bear regime captures capitulation events — periods of extreme fear, liquidation cascades, and outsized negative returns.
Regime persistence (how long Bitcoin stays in a given state) is encoded in the diagonal of the transition matrix. High persistence means fewer regime changes — a feature exploited by trend-following strategies. Regime history also reveals leading indicators: Transition periods frequently precede significant directional moves.
Institutional crypto traders use regime history to calibrate position sizing and risk limits. During High Volatility Bear regimes, realized volatility can exceed 100% annualized, making options strategies and delta-hedging critical tools. Learn more about HMM regime theory →